Triasima ACWE Fund commentary – Q3 2025

2025-10-16

The economy

Economies worldwide were on an uncertain path during the third quarter of 2025. In the United States, consumer spending remains resilient, especially among higher income households. Large corporate investment, most notably in artificial intelligence and its supporting supply chain, stimulate overall growth. At the same time, trade disruptions, elevated tariffs, and a deteriorating labour market are weighing on the outlook. These themes are also present in the Eurozone, China, and in Canada.

Central banks shifted their focus towards labour market risks. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada cut their overnight rates by 0.25% in September, signaling a tilt toward supporting growth and employment while still considering inflation.

China faces growing youth unemployment and is also buffeted by the trade war. 

Business activity accelerated from a low level in the Eurozone but is expected to remain weak heading into 2026. Germany, its largest economy, is supported by growing defense and infrastructure spending.

The world equity market

The MSCI ACWI had a 9.7% return this quarter.

There was a risk-on and growth-oriented tone in the markets, with the Materials (13%), Information Technology (15%), and Communication Services (14%) sectors leading.

The Magnificent 7 climbed another 20% this quarter, led by strong gains in Apple (27%) and Alphabet (40%). A judge’s ruling in an antitrust case upheld the existing business arrangements between Google and Apple and was favorable for their sectors. As for the Materials sector, it was propelled by base metals and gold miners.

Consumer Staples (0%) and Real Estate (5%) were the laggards, as defensive sectors typically underperform during periods of market strength.

The Fund

The Triasima ACWE Fund had a 6.2% return this quarter.

Most of the detracted value originated from security selection in the Materials, Financials, and the Information Technology sectors. Sector allocation also had a negative impact. The underperforming Industrials sector was overweight, while the top-performing Information Technology sector was underweight.

The following table presents the top and bottom contributors to relative return:

  Positive impact

  Negative impact

Hochtief AG

Apple Inc.*

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd

AXON Enterprise Inc.

CH Robinson Worldwide Inc.

Kyndryl Holdings Inc.

Millicom Intl Cellular SA

Secunet Security Networks AG

XPeng Inc.

Tesla Inc.*

*Securities not held in the Fund.

Turnover focused on eliminating disappointing securities while adding growth and cyclicality to the portfolio. The Industrials sector was trimmed down, although it remains significantly overweight. Conversely, cash was deployed into the Information Technology sector reducing its underweight. The Financials sector was also significantly added to, mainly with the addition of banks. 

The Three-Pillar Approach ™

On the quantitative side, the Fund has superior expectations, and revenue and earnings growth parameters than the benchmark. However, risk metrics are worse, and the Fund’s holdings are more expensive and less profitable.

The MSCI ACWI Index was in a strong uninterrupted upward trend in the quarter. Its climb was aggressive, driven by cyclical and growth industries and with the style factors beta, price volatility, and earnings variability leading.

The fundamental outlook for global equities improved. American tariffs have so far proved less disruptive than feared, infrastructure and artificial intelligence related investments continue apace, while interest rates are stable and earnings growing. 

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The posted rate of return is a historical total rate of return compounded annually, except for periods of less than one year, which are not annualized. The rate of return shown takes into account fluctuations in unitholder value and the reinvestment of distributions. The posted rate of return does not take into account investment management fees and income taxes payable by the unitholder, which would have the effect of reducing the return. The Funds are not guaranteed, their value fluctuates, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

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